Russia Cannot Host Olympics

Recently I have been writing about how gay rights has been taking great leaps forward in recent months. Unfortunately one country has been leaping in the opposite direction: Russia. Although homosexual acts are technically still legal, Putin and the Russian government have made any sort of expression of it illegal. The new law bans "propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations". Waving a gay pride. Illegal! Saying that homosexuality is normal. Illegal! Being openly homosexual. Illegal! The law applies to tourists as well, if you are caught performing any of the outlawed activities, you will be held for 14 days and then deported. This would mean that former Icelandic PM, Jóhanna Sigurðadóttir, could no longer visit Russia if she became PM again.

It is clear that this law is barbaric and it is symbolic of how the hope for Russia, following the collapse of Communism, has faded away. The law has faced, deservedly, harsh criticism from around the world and much of the world wants to act. The target the world found: the 2014 Winter Olympic Games. The games were awarded to the Russian city of Sochi in 2007 and since then the games have been marred in corruption scandals. In recent days there has been an increasingly vocal call for the Olympics to be moved from Sochi to somewhere else, anywhere else.

I fully support these efforts to move the 2014 Winter Olympics to somewhere else. The IOC recognises the rights of LGBT people and so cannot stand idly by whilst this barbarism continues in Russia. Stephen Fry has compared the Sochi Olympics to the 1936 Berlin Olympics when the IOC ignored Hitler's rampant anti-Semitism and allowed the games to go ahead. Putin's homophobic laws don't just criminalise and marginalise gays, they empower thugs and militias to beat up and kill gays. I urge Prime Minister David Cameron, the British Olympic Committee and the IOC to try and move the games to another venue. There are plenty of suitable locations worldwide, the Alps, Japan, Korea, Scandinavia, the US & Canada could all host the games easily, so they would not struggle to find a replacement city.

The barbarism must stop. Sign a change.org petition here to move the games. Also sign here to ask the sponsors of the Olympic games to act.http://www.change.org/petitions/stand-against-russia-s-brutal-crackdown-on-gay-rights-urge-winter-olympics-2014-sponsors-to-condemn-anti-gay-laws

The Old World Order - Europe

Population: 738 million
Area: 10 million km2
GDP: $18.7 trillion
GDP (per capita): $25,000

Europe is difficult to review as it is a continent rather than a country. Last year when I reviewed Africa I hadn't reviewed any countries within Africa. This time I have already reviewed four European nations. Undoubtedly Europe has been at the centre of international relations for the last several centuries having owned (at different times) all of the Americas, Africa and Australasia as well as most of Asia. The future looks problematic for Europe, its facing population decline and much of its resources have already been exhausted. By 2050 Europe's population will have declined to 677 million people. Much of Mediterranean Europe is in financial chaos, pulling the rest of Europe in. But all is not lost. The EU has the world's largest economy of $17 trillion, four countries of the 10 in terms of military expenditure are in it and two have veto power in the UN. Parts of Eastern Europe are also still quite poor, which sounds bad but means there is plenty of room for European GDP to grow.

Europe can also be a model for peace and democracy. I believe that the last wars in Europe took place in the former Yugoslavia. We may finally have gotten rid of war in Europe. Freedom House 2013 reports of 46 European nations, 37 were designated free, seven were partly free and only two were not free. With several of these less free countries moving forward, Europe could be the first continent to only have democracies that are truly free.

The Old World Order - Canada

Population: 35 million
Area: 9.9 million km2
GDP: $1.7 trillion
GDP (per capita): $42,000

Of the seven countries that I am reviewing, Canada is the one with the most hope in its future. Canada is massive, it is the second largest country y area and has a wealth of resources. Canada has the third largest proven oil reserves (175 billion barrels) and the third largest uranium reserves (485,000 tonnes) as well as the 13th largest coal reserves (6.5 billion tonnes) and the 20th largest natural gas reserves (1.75 trillion m3). So it is easy to say that Canada is resource wealthy and considering that much of Canada is under permafrost and unexplored, it will only get wealthier.

When you combine the extreme resource wealth with a (relatively) low population of only 35 million, screwing up the Canadian economy would be an achievement. The population is expected to be 41 million in 2050. Largely I have included Canada on the list for two reasons; first is that I wrote about all the other G7 nations so I may as well do Canada. Secondly, Canada faces a very serious threat; not existing. Or at least not existing in its current form. As in the cases of Britain and Italy, Canada has a strong secessionist movement. Quebec. The Québécois have always been different to the rest of Canada, their heritage is predominantly French rather than British or Irish and most of them speak French rather than English. Two referendums have been held over the question of Quebec independence, in 1980 independence was voted down by 20%, in 1995 the referendum was much closer with 49.42% of the electorate voting for independence and 50.58% voting against.

Quebec breaking away would create problems for Canada. Quebec is 15.4% of the area, 23% of the population and produces 20% of Canadian GDP. It also contains significant proportions of Canada's natural resources. It would also have the added problem of effectively splitting Canada in two, with the four smallest provinces of Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador, effectively isolated from the rest of Canada.

So Canada's future as a powerful nation is largely secure, as long as it can hold itself together.

Old World Order - Italy

Population: 61 million
Area: 301,000km2
GDP: $2.2 trillion
GDP (per capita): $33,000
United Nations Security Council Veto: No

In the late 1800s the Italian mini-states and city states were unified by the Kingdom of Piedmont into one country. The newly unified Italy was immediately powerful and over the next 100 years expanded its influence and power. Italy ended up on the right side of WWI, but thanks to the leadership of fascist Mussolini, was on the wrong side of WWII. In the years immediately following WWII the Italian economy grew very well, and although it had lost influence, still did rather well as a country.

The Italy of today is still relatively powerful, although not a great power. It has the 10th largest military expenditure in the world and the 8th largest economy. As in the case of Germany, Japan and France, a problem for Italy in its future is population decline. Currently Italy is the 23rd largest country in the world with 61 million pepole, by 2050 that is expected to have shrunk to 60 million people making it the 29th largest. This decline puts huge pressure on Italy, as time goes by its working population will decrease whilst the retired population will increase. This will mean more people will be collecting pensions and put more pressure on healthcare whilst tax receipts will decline as there are fewer people working.

Politics in Italy is also problematic as it is by far the most corrupt of the nations I am reviewing. Italian politicians of all sorts get generous pay cheques, the mayor of Bolzano (a city of roughly 100,000)gets paid more than Barack Obama. Not helping the cause is Silvio Berlusconi who kept up a political career despite having sex with numerous prostitutes, some of whom were minors.

Italy also has to deal with secessionist movements in the north (sometimes referred to as Padania), Sardinia and Sicily. In Sardinia polls show up to 40% of Sardinians supporting independence. Whilst Lega Nord (a pro-Padania party in the north) is the largest party in the Veneto and enjoys strong support in other regions such as Lombardy and Piedmont. Dealing with secessionist movements is always difficult, improving the economy tends to help, as does increasing the autonomy regions have. The north of Italy is much wealthier than the south and many northerners feel that they are subsidising the poorer south. A lot of grievances could be eased if the south was economically vitalised. There are major problems with this, the south has been poorer than the south for centuries, so the inequality is structural and would require a lot of capital. Capital that Italy simply does not have.

Italian finances are in a horrific state, its debt to GDP ratio is 126%, the 2nd highest in the Western world and the 8th overall. To make matters worse Italy is one of the European PIIGS countries that needs help from its northern neighbours. Italy needs serious financial reform (a good start would be slashing politicians' pay) and money to stimulate its economy.

So Italy faces three key problems; an ageing and declining population, strong secessionist movements and a crumbling economy.

Starting to notice a pattern of problems with Western nations?

Old World Order - Japan

Population: 127 million
Area: 378,000km2
GDP: $5.9 trillion
GDP (per capita): $35,000

Japan is unique in the countries that I am reviewing; it is the only Asian country and the only one never to have beenm controlled by Europeans. Japan has a very large economy, behind only the USA and China. This, seemingly successful, economy is in part thanks to US investment following WWII out of fears that Japan might fall to the Communists. The truth is that although the Japenese economy is large, it is also stagnant and has been since the early 1990s. Japan is also facing problems in the future; the rise of China, fear of North Korea, and an ageing and shrinking population.

The rise of China is a serious threat to Japan, it already has a larger economy and higher military expenditure. China also has the world's largest standing army. China and Japan are currently arguing over the rights to fish in the waters between the two nations. A stronger China would find it easier to bully Japan. Thankfully the Japanese have the Americans backing them.

Another issue I mentioned was fear of North Korea. This may never amount to anything, but could prove disastrous for Japan if things do fo wrong. Nobody id quite sure what nuclear capability North Korea has, but we can be pretty certain that within the next decade (if not already) that it will have nuclear weapons that can reach anywhere in Japan. This is really worrying as tensions between the two Koreas is at a high and rising. If the regime in Pyongyang were to send nuclear missiles to Japan, the result would be devastating.

The North Korean problem may never come to fruition, but one problem Japan is already facing is an aging and declining population. The fertility rate in Japan is very low, which means the working population is shrinking whilst the dependent population is increasing. Fewer people working means lower government revenue, whilst more retired people means higher government expenditire through pensions and healthcare. This is a recipe for disaster as Japan's debt to GDP ratio, at 214% of GDP, is the highest in the world, even higher than Greece and Zimbabwe! Japan's stagnant economy is not helped by its declining population, currently Japan is the 10th largest country in the world with 127 million people. By 2050 this is expected to decline to 107 million people, making it the 17th largest.

Low growth has been the standard for the Japanese economy over the past two decades. Japan has never really recovered from a crash in the early 1990s. If a government were to actually pull Japan out of the doldrums then it would be a miracle.

So Japan faces three main problems; challenges from Asian neighbours, poor economic performance and a declining population.

Old World Order - Germany

Population: 80 million
Area: 357,000km2
GDP: $3.6 trillion
GDP (per capita): $42,000
United Nations Security Council Veto: No

The numerous German states were unified in the late 1800s under the brilliant leadership of Otto Von Bismarck. The first century of its existence was tumultuous, its expansionist politics helped cause WWI and were the primary cause of WWII. Both wars ended with defeat and humiliation for Germany. Thankfully the Allies learnt how to deal with a defeated Germany and the Germans seemed happier to assume a smaller role in the world than they had previously desired. 

At the moment Germany is doing rather well, its lack of housing boom and export led economy meant it has been able to weather the recent economic crisis. It is the largest country entirely in Europe with over 80 million people (15th largest in the world). Its economy is the fourth largest, behind only America, China and Japan. Germany's economy is also growing, considering the circumstances this is quite a feat. Yet there are dark skies approaching Germany's future. 

For the first decade of the Euro's existence, Germany benefitted greatly as it made exporting to the European periphery easier. Unfortunately crisis in the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) could spread to Germany.  The northern Euro nations, especially Germany, have demanded that, in exchange for bailouts, the countries must impose harsh austerity. This had proved disastrous for the economies of the countries who are in a worse financial state, despite the bailouts Greece still risks default. If Greece goes then a domino effect could occur on the other PIIGS countries which would devastate the world economy, particularly the Eurozone. German banks that lent a lot to the PIIGS would default if the Germans did not bail them out.

Another risk to German power (and GDP) is its shrinking population. By 2050 Germany is expected to drop to 21st in the world rankings, with 71 million people, just marginally more than Britain. That would mean Britain would have the largest population in Europe by 2060. This is beneficial to Britain, not so much to Germany.

Germany's most serious threat originates outside of its borders, in the Eurozone periphery. I've already discussed what the problem is, so here I will concentrate on the solution. To solve the crisis will require the agreement of the Eurozone countries (there's 17 of them) and possibly the whole of the EU (28 nations) and help will probably have to come from the IMF and/or World Bank (the whole planet). Oh dear. Even just getting the agreement of the 17 Eurozone nations is difficult enough. What Germany needs to push for is more fiscal integration, which it has been doing, and economic stimulus in the problematic regions, which it has done the exact opposite. The Germans seem unwilling (like much of the rest of the world) to learn from the lessons of history that stimulus works and austerity fails.

To sum up; Germany faces two major challenges, a declining population and trouble in the Eurozone. The Eurozone challenge can be fixed - If German leaders recognise their mistakes and rectify them.

Old World Order - France

Population: 66 million
Area: 641,000 km2
GDP: $2.7 trillion
GDP (per capita): $36,000
United Nations Security Council Veto: Yes

France has been at the centre of European history for over 1100 years. In Europe, the only country that's been in more wars is Austria (although largely powerless now, before the 20th century Austria dominate Central European affairs). France had a huge empire and once nearly conquered all of continental Europe bar a disastrous attempt to invade Russia in the winter. These days France is still pretty powerful, having the 6th largest military expenditure in the world and veto power on the United Nations Security Council. It also has close ties to its European neighbours. France's future, however, is not all that rosy. 

One problem France is going to experience is population growth, or lack thereof. Currently France is the 21st largest country in the world with 65 million people, but by 2050 it is expected to drop to the 25th largest. Although its population will have risen to 69 million, it will have been shrinking since 2040. One way to reverse this would be to increase the amount of immigrants to France, but the French populace doesn't like that idea much. 

Although France's finances are not in the dire state that some of its European neighbours are in, economic prospects are gloomy. Since Hollande took power last year France's economy has barely improved. France is also vulnerable because it is in the Eurozone, which means the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) countries' troubles are France's troubles. Its banking sector is particularly at risk from a Greek default due to the amount of money French banks have lent in Greece. Another Great Recession could hold France back for too long. 

One option France has is to move to closer ties within Europe. More fiscal policy and banking integration with Euro currency countries. This obviously has massive problems and rather glaring obstacles. To pull closer to political integration requires the other countries to do the same. There is increasing euro-scepticism in many Euro countries, particularly in the Netherlands and Finland. The problem is that fiscal integration can only happen it all countries currently using the euro agree to do this. Hollande must convince the Northern Europeans to stimulate the PIIGS economies, rather than demand austerity which simple makes the situation worse. 

Another issue facing France is the rise of the extreme right epitomised by Marine Le Pen and her party, the National Front. If we ignore the obvious historical similarities between this and the rise of Hitler following the Great Depression in 1929, this is still an issue for France. Le Pen is an isolationist, similar to Nigel Farage in the UK except more extreme, she wants out of the Eurozone, the EU and Schengen Area as well as reducing immigration by over 95%!

So France faxes three main issues; isolationism, population decline and economic turmoil in Europe. Solving the economic trouble will be difficult, but would go a long way to reducing isolationism. The population decline problem can be fixed by immigration policies that the French won't like.